Saturday, August 27, 2016
China Is Fueling a Submarine Arms Race in the Asia-Pacific
With China plowing money into its military machine and making aggressive claims to disputed island chains, Beijing’s regional rivals are investing in the one weapon that can undercut the increasingly potent People’s Liberation Army. Across South and East Asia, China’s neighbors are spending heavily on submarines, purchasing silent diesel-electric machines capable of slipping past Chinese defenses.
So when the Australian reported this week that detailed technical plans — totaling some 20,000 pages — for a French-made submarine had leaked from the manufacturer, the reaction was one of widespread panic. The leaked plans outlined in minute detail the capabilities of a Scorpene-class vessel purchased by India, and New Delhi immediately demanded that French authorities investigate how the respected DCNS shipbuilder had lost control of the plans. In Australia, where DCNS has been tapped to build the country’s next-generation submarine, officials warned the contractor needed to step up security.
The sharp reaction reveals the central place of submarines in Asia’s accelerating arms race. Submarines are one of the few weapons with which countries warily eyeing Beijing’s military buildup can send a signal that they do not plan to stand idly by as China asserts its interests through coercion and unilateral moves, particularly in the South China Sea. Australia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, and India can do little about the formidable radar installations and missile batteries dotting China’s coastline, as well as its expanding fleet of naval ships and warplanes, but they can build vessels capable of slipping underneath Beijing’s naval cordon.
That’s because while China has spent billions of dollars upgrading many aspects of its armed forces, from fighter jets to naval destroyers, its ability to carry out anti-submarine warfare still lags behind, said Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. And that has left a tactical opening for China’s rivals.
“These countries are really seeing these submarines as the capital ships of their navies,” said Clark, a former U.S. Navy submariner and advisor to the service’s top brass.
What was for much of the 20th century a mere commerce raider, in other words, is now becoming a way to project power. Jonathan Greenert, the former chief of naval operations — the top job in the U.S. Navy — said submarines are an attractive weapon for countries in the Asia-Pacific, and governments in the region will likely ratchet up their spending on the vessels amid growing concern over China’s missile arsenal.
“You can deliver destructive power in a stealthy manner, and that’s a deterrent. We see more of that taking place,” Greenert said.
That’s why this week’s news of an apparent leak of classified operating data of advanced submarines is so worrisome to countries like India and Australia, both of which have committed to buy advanced submarines from DCNS, the French shipbuilder. The leak revealed crucial information, such as diving times, torpedo ranges, and above all noise profiles while operating underwater.
Emmanuel Gaudez, a spokesman for DCNS, said the leaks are a “serious matter” that are being “investigated by the proper French national authorities for defense security,” who “will determine the exact nature of the leaked documents, the potential damages to DCNS customers, as well as the responsibilities for this leakage.”
The submarine race comes as China is denying adversaries access to its coastal waters through an expanding array of missiles and naval bases. Powerful radars light upAmerican, Japanese, and other ships that patrol the Western Pacific. Cutting-edge satellites peer down from space to mark them for potential targeting. And Beijing has deployed scores of missile batteries capable of hitting targets hundreds of miles away all along the coast.
In response, Vietnam, which has repeatedly clashed with China over rival territorial claims in the South China Sea, has bought six Russian-made Kilo-class submarines worth $2.6 billion since 2009 for deployment at Cam Ranh Bay. The Kilo-class diesel-electric subs — able to operate nearly silently and armed with shorter-range torpedoes and sea-skimming anti-ship missiles with a range of 188 miles — would force China to think twice before entering into a confrontation with Vietnam. Hanoi also is looking at acquiring U.S.-made P-3 Orion anti-submarine patrol aircraft to track China’s subs.
Although China has a vast naval fleet — including 70 submarines — that far outnumbers Vietnam’s navy, Beijing might be hard-pressed to track Hanoi’s newly acquired subs, which can move with stealth and strike like an undersea guerrilla force. Hanoi’s submarine fleet offers a form of asymmetric warfare against a much stronger opponent, in keeping with Vietnam’s strategic tradition honed on land during its successful wars against the United States and France.
Vietnam’s sub purchase is part of a steady rise in military spending across Asia. Over the past decade, countries across the region have built up advanced militaries, led by China’s huge jump in arms spending. Asian arms spending rose 5.4 percent from 2014 to 2015 — compared with 1 percent worldwide, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Indonesia is also in the market for stealthy diesel subs and is anxious to expand its small fleet from two vessels to seven. It announced plans last year to purchase two Russian-made Kilo-class submarines and is awaiting the delivery of three South Korean-built subs ordered in 2012. Jakarta reportedly plans to deploy some of the vessels — along with fighter jets — to a base in the Natuna Islands, an area that overlaps with China’s expansive territorial claims in the South China Sea.
India has looked on with alarm as China has begun to operate submarines in the Indian Ocean in recent years, and the government has committed to an ambitious plan to build24 submarines over the next 30 years in a bid to keep up with Beijing’s undersea prowess.
But the Scorpene submarine project has been plagued by delays and is already several years behind schedule. The first submarine in the class was supposed to be delivered in 2012, but the INS Kalvari, the first of six planned Scorpene vessels, only entered sea trials this year.
With the Scorpene project already lagging behind, the leak of thousands of pages of sensitive data about the submarine dismayed Indian officials. And the secret spilling also shook Australia, where the government has awarded a controversial $38 billion contract to DCNS to build a cutting-edge submarine. Based on a design for France’s own new nuclear submarine, the so-called Shortfin Barracuda would provide Canberra with the ability to project power across the vast swaths of ocean to Australia’s north.
The Shortfin Barracuda is a scaled-down version of France’s flagship submarine that has swapped nuclear propulsion for diesel-electric. It is a highly capable submarine that can carry out long missions at sea and is equipped with an American combat control system.
“It’ll be the best diesel submarine in the world if they achieve it,” Clark said.
Paris lobbied hard to win the lucrative contract for DCNS — over Washington’s objections. The White House pushed Australia to award the contract to Tokyo in a bid to strengthen Japan’s defense industrial base at a time when the United States is seeking to have its key East Asian ally shoulder greater responsibility for countering Chinese military moves in the region.
The breach at DCNS of highly sensitive information about the Scorpene sub has raised questions about the company’s information security and whether it can keep the technical specifications of the vessel secret in the face of intense interest in Beijing about its capabilities. The data breach will be at the top of the agenda when India’s defense minister, Manohar Parrikar, holds talks on Monday at the Pentagon with U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter.
The potential fallout from the leak could extend to other countries that have also ordered versions of the Scorpene vessel, including Chile, Malaysia, and Brazil.
But it remains unclear how much of the Scorpene leak is actually available in the public domain. Cameron Stewart, the associate editor for the Australian who broke the news of the leak from DCNS, reported that the information may have been taken from the shipbuilder by a former French Navy officer working as a subcontractor.
“I don’t believe that the information was stolen for the purposes of espionage but rather for the purpose of assisting as reference material for a military course with a navy in Southeast Asia,” Stewart told Foreign Policy. “But then the original holder of the data lost control of it to another company, and that company then held the data. What they did with it, or if they knew it was valuable, is unclear.”
“It had spent at least several years in Southeast Asia by that stage after being removed from France in 2011,” Stewart said. “I am confident that the data was not leaked beyond its recipient in Australia, but it remains unknown if the data was copied, intercepted, or otherwise compromised while it was in Southeast Asia.”
But with a long list of countries looking to make submarine purchases, officials at DCNS are also examining whether or not the leaks could have been an act of corporate espionage.
“We don’t know if economic warfare is the point of the start of the leaks against the company,” Gaudez, the spokesman, said. DCNS is currently competing for submarine contracts from Norway and Poland, and the company will surely face questions following the leak of information about whether it can keep sensitive technical information secret.
“Competition is getting tougher and tougher, and it might be a tool which might be used,” Gaudez said.
Monday, August 22, 2016
Jurassic Coast meteor shower
As if this beach were not stunning enough, meteors brightening the sky against the backdrop of the Milky Way took it to a whole new level of beauty.
When it was announced last week that we would be treated to a meteor shower, there was only one place bricklayer Jack Sargent from Coleford, England, was heading.
Sargent, 22, made the trip down to the Jurassic Coast in southern England on Aug. 11, where he captured the meteors soaring past. (Caters News Agency)
Hundreds of flights cancelled as typhoon hits Tokyo
Recent developments surrounding the South China Sea dispute
BEIJING (AP) — A look at recent developments in the South China Sea, where China is pitted against smaller neighbors in multiple disputes over islands, coral reefs and lagoons in waters crucial for global commerce and rich in fish and potential gas and oil reserves:
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EDITOR'S NOTE: This is a weekly look at the latest key developments in the South China Sea, home to several territorial conflicts that have raised tensions in the region.
DUTERTE TAKES LOW-KEY APPROACH TO DISPUTE WITH CHINA
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said last week that he would not raise maritime disputes with China at a meeting of Southeast Asian nations in Laos next month, preferring to talk quietly with Chinese officials.
"I will only bring the issue when we are together face to face," he told reporters. "Because if you quarrel with them now and you claim sovereignty, make noise here and there, they might not just even want to talk."
Duterte has been lukewarm in his support for the international arbitration case filed by his predecessor and has said he was adopting "a softer approach" to resolving the disputes.
He said last week that his special envoy to China, former President Fidel Ramos, is paving the way for possible talks with China.
"Let us create an environment where we can sit down, talk directly, and that is the time when I would say, we proceed from here," he said.
Ramos flew to Hong Kong earlier this month to meet the Chinese legislature's foreign affairs chief, Fu Ying, and a leading government-backed scholar on the dispute, and they agreed on the need to reduce tensions through talks.
China welcomed him to visit Beijing for discussions, but the tribunal ruling was not directly discussed, Ramos told reporters. He gave no indication of when any talks might be held.
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PHILIPPINES RECEIVES COAST GUARD SHIP FROM JAPAN
The Philippine coast guard took possession last week of the first of nine multi-role response vessels being provided by Japan in an effort to boost a chronic shortage of maritime assets amid Manila's territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea.
The 44-meter (144-foot) BRP Tubbataha was formally received at the port in the capital, Manila, after having left Japan on Aug. 11 with a dozen officers and sailors on board. The ships are being built by the Japan Marine United Corporation's Yokohama shipyard.
Alongside the U.S. military's heightened emphasis on the Asia-Pacific region, Japan has been upping its presence in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean, partly to counter China's growing footprint. Aside from their close geographic proximity, the Philippines and Japan are both U.S. treaty partners who are locked in maritime territorial claims with Beijing.
The Philippines challenged the validity of China's claims and aggressive actions in the South China Sea after Chinese government ships took control of disputed Scarborough Shoal following a tense standoff in 2012. China, meanwhile, claims sovereignty over a string of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea controlled by Japan and has lately stepped-up coast guard activities in the area.
Closer cooperation between Japan and the Philippines is sure to anger China, which suffered from Japanese invasion in World War II and warns constantly of a resurgence of militaristic sentiments within Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's conservative government.
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CHINA, ASEAN AGREE ON RULES GOVERNING SEA ENCOUNTERS
Senior officials from China and Southeast Asian Nations met in northern China last week to agree on rules governing unexpected encounters at sea in hopes of avoiding conflicts.
Representatives from Beijing and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations discussed implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea signed in 2002.
That agreement was intended to promote "peace, stability and mutual trust in the South China Sea," but has been largely shoved aside by China's decision to assert its own claim to virtually the entire strategic water body.
Despite that, all parties say they want to avoid hostile encounters that could spark a larger conflict. The agreed on Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea had already been adopted by several, but not all ASEAN countries, at a meeting in China in 2014.
"The code itself is technical, but applying the code has political significance. It is politically important to prevent potential risks on South China Sea," Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin told attendees at the meeting in the city of Manzhouli in northern China's Inner Mongolia region.
China and ASEAN are still discussing a South China Sea Code of Conduct that would more explicitly define rights and obligations among countries with overlapping territorial claims in the crucial water body.
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CHINA HOLDS LIVE-FIRING EXERCISES IN GULF OF TONKIN
China's coast guard launched live-firing exercises in the Gulf of Tonkin on Monday, the latest in a series of military drills that come amid a renewed focus on the multinational dispute over maritime claims in the South China Sea.
The Maritime Safety Administration said ships and boats were barred from the area, called the Beibu Gulf by China, from Monday to Wednesday. The gulf lies between China's southern island province of Hainan and the northeastern coast of Vietnam
China's navy and air force have held a series of drills in surrounding waters since an international arbitration panel in The Hague issued a ruling last month invalidating Beijing's claim to virtually the entire South China Sea, where six governments in all claim territory.
China angrily rejected the ruling and said it would begin flying regular air patrols over the strategic waterway while continuing to develop airstrips, harbors and other infrastructure of military value on man-made islands it controls in the disputed Spratly group.
China also plans joint naval exercises with Russia in the South China Sea next month in a move criticized by the U.S. as harming regional stability.Tuesday, August 9, 2016
Philippines military: 4 Abu Sayyaf militants die in clash with Moro rebels
Philippine Groups Oppose Marcos Burial at Heroes' Cemetery
A Philippine historical commission, former human rights victims and left-wing groups are opposing President Rodrigo Duterte's approval of a plan to bury late dictator Ferdinand Marcos in a heroes' cemetery, reigniting a politically divisive and emotional debate. A coalition of groups opposed to the plan said Tuesday that Marcos was a plunderer who ordered the torture and deaths of thousands of his critics. Duterte gave the go-ahead Sunday for the burial, which is expected next month. He said Marcos, who was ousted in a 1986 "people power" revolt, is qualified to be buried at the military-run cemetery as a former soldier and president. The National Historical Commission of the Philippines, meanwhile, ...
Monday, August 8, 2016
Sports
In a sign of unity, North and South Korean gymnasts snap friendly selfie
Although the complaints leading up to the Rio Olympics have been numerous, it is all worth it for moments like this: Gymnasts Lee Eun-ju of South Korea and Hong Un-jong of North Korea, were spotted talking together and even snapped a photo, with Eun-ju flashing the peace sign. "Team North Korea at Olympic Games Rio 2016 isn't the usual segregated, anti-social group. Compared to them at past international games, North Korean athletes look more comfortable and relaxed," Korea Daily observed. North Korean artistic gymnast Ri Se-gwang was also spotted receiving high-fives from Team USA while warming up; North Korean weightlifter Om Yun-chol also took selfies with other teams. And despite their countries ...
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