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What a Retracted Statement Says About China’s Growing Power in the South China Sea
It was there—and then it wasn’t. On Tuesday evening, foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) performed a diplomatic magic trick. First, after a meeting with their Chinese counterpart in southwest China, they issued a statement on the rising tensions in the South China Sea, parts of which are claimed by six regional governments. The language, for a body that prides itself on consensus-making and group photos of grinning dignitaries, was stern: “We expressed our serious concerns over recent and ongoing developments, which have eroded trust and confidence, increased tensions and which may have the potential to undermine peace, security and stability in the South China Sea.”
The nation that was eroding “trust and confidence” in the strategic waterway was unnamed. But China, which has embarked on an ambitious island-building campaign in disputed waters, and has blamed the U.S. for masterminding any regional conflict, was mentioned elsewhere in the statement. “We also cannot ignore what is happening in the South China Sea,” the communiqué read, “as it is an important issue in the relations and cooperation between ASEAN and China.”
While that sentence might seem anodyne, it implies a repudiation of China’s preferred approach of negotiating bilaterally with each rival claimant, rather than facing the united front of a regional body. The ASEAN statement also cautioned against “militarization” in the South China Sea, a clear rebuke against China’s defense build-up, which includes not only the new islands complete with runways that can welcome military jets, but also missile batteries, radar facilities and a coast guard that regularly comes into conflict with fishing boats from other littoral nations.
But, less than three hours after the ASEAN statement was released by the Malaysian Foreign Ministry, a spokeswoman retracted the document, saying that “urgent amendments” were needed. By the end of the evening, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had made his own statement refuting the contention that the South China Sea dispute was a sticking point between his country and the regional body as a whole.
“This isn’t an issue between China and ASEAN,” he said. “Cooperation between China and ASEAN is far greater than any specific discord, including the South China Sea dispute.”
That may be. China, after all, is ASEAN’s largest trading partner. One senior regional diplomat told TIME that, in the busy minutes after the ASEAN statement went out, Beijing had lobbied regional ministers to make the embarrassing backtrack. Beijing’s foreign-policy makers, he said, had specifically pressured Laos, which is this year’s ASEAN chair, to force the statement’s recall. (ASEAN requires consensus among all of its 10 members to issue any statement.)
“When the dragon roars, the little countries need to stay away from the fire coming out of its mouth,” says the diplomat. “We have no choice but to acknowledge this political reality.”
A day later, and no new ASEAN statement has been issued—and it isn’t clear whether one would be forthcoming at all. Instead, individual announcements from various Southeast Asian countries have dribbled out. The diplomatic mess recalled an incident in 2012 when, for the first time in ASEAN history, the group wrapped up a summit without a joint communiqué because of what was widely perceived to be Chinese pressure on Cambodia to avoid the sensitive South China Sea issue.
“This is turning out to be another fiasco in which ASEAN’s credibility has been damaged because of a lack of unity,” says Ian Storey, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “It really looks not only like ASEAN is in disarray but also that it lacks any backbone.”
The strategic contest in the South China Sea brings together a rising China that is moreassertively claiming disputed territory; a U.S. that has long held sway over the Pacific; and five other regional governments that claim various bits of rock and reef. It’s a combustible mix, only heightened by an expected decision in the coming weeks from a U.N. tribunal that could well undercut China’s claims over more than 80% of the contested waters. (The other claimants are Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia.)
Beijing has said it believes the Permanent Court of Arbitration does not have jurisdiction over the case, which was lodged by the Philippines, another claimant. The Hague tribunal has no ability to enforce its decision but Beijing has been courting international support ahead of the judgement. China’s Foreign Ministry now says some 60 nations support its perspective, including such disparate countries as Gambia, Belarus and, notably, Laos. (Some countries, like Fiji, that were originally named as part of China’s South China Sea bloc, have since distanced themselves from Beijing’s pronouncements.) Over recent weeks, Chinese state media has regularly accused the U.S. of using the South China Sea issue to foment regional instability and prevent China’s rise.
Meanwhile, the G-7 nations last month cautioned against rising maritime tensions in the South China Sea and issued a veiled rebuke against China. “We reaffirm the importance of states’ making and clarifying their claims based on international law,” the communiqué read, “refraining from unilateral actions which could increase tensions and not using force or coercion in trying to drive their claims.”
At a late May security summit in Singapore, U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter spoke out against China’s build-up in the waterway, through which more than $5 trillion in trade flows each year. “China’s actions in the South China Sea are isolating it at a time when the entire region is coming together and networking,” he said. “Unfortunately, if these actions continue, China could end up erecting a Great Wall of self-isolation.”
The response from Chinese Admiral Sun Jianguo was spirited. “We do not make trouble, but we have no fear of trouble,” he said in Singapore. “China will not bear the consequences, nor will it allow any infringement upon its sovereignty and security interests or stay indifferent to the irresponsible behavior of some countries in and around the South China Sea.”
Joint statements from ASEAN, it turns out, are not much trouble at all.Vietnamese fighter jet goes missing along South China Sea coast
HANOI (Reuters) - A Russian-made Vietnamese fighter jet was missing on Tuesday after disappearing off the radar during a training flight along the central part of the country's South China Sea coastline, a military official said.
The Sukhoi SU-30 MK2 was flying 30-40 km off the coast of Nghe An province next to China's Hainan island when it went missing and practice flights by the same jet model had since been suspended, said Senior Lieutenant General Vo Van Tuan, the deputy armed forces chief of staff.
"We haven't found the jet yet, we are still looking," he told Reuters.
Asked about the possible reason for its disappearance, Tuan said: "We have to find it to know it."
The incident follows a series of mishaps in the past two years with its ageing helicopters and at a time when Vietnam recalibrates its defense strategy and oversees its biggest military buildup in four decades.
The country is seeking to modernize its defense capability, ostensibly as a deterrent against the military rise of Beijing and its growing assertiveness in the South China Sea, over which the two communist neighbors have competing claims.
The missing SU-30 MK2 fighter-bomber was one of 30 in use by Vietnam. Fighter jets are on its shopping list and its options are expected to expand following last month's lifting of a U.S. lethal arms embargo on a former enemy Washington is eager to turn into its newest Asian ally.
Vietnam has been in talks with Western and U.S. arms manufacturers towards boosting its air force with jets, helicopters and maritime patrol aircraft, although experts say it is likely Russia will continue to be its main supplier.
China claims most of the energy-rich South China Sea through which about $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also have claims.
(Reporting by Mai Nguyen; Writing Martin Petty; Editing by Nick Macfie)Chinese Spy Ship 'Shadowing' U.S. Navy Vessel
A Chinese observation ship shadowed the U.S. aircraft carrier John C. Stennis in the Western Pacific on Wednesday, as it joined warships from Japan and India for drills close to waters Beijing considers its backyard, the carrier's commander said. The show of U.S. naval power comes as Japan and the United States worry China is extending its influence into the Western Pacific with submarines and surface vessels as it pushes territorial claims in the neighboring South China Sea, expanding and building on islands. China has been angered by what it views as provocative U.S. military patrols close to the islands. The United States says the patrols are to protect freedom of navigation. Tokyo on Wednesday ...
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World
Picking sides: A world of opinions on South China Sea case
WASHINGTON (AP) — A case brought by U.S. ally the Philippines against China represents a diplomatic dilemma for far-flung nations as Washington and Beijing rally support for their respective positions on the use of international arbitration in South China Sea disputes.
The United States has been building diplomatic pressure in the West and in Asia on China to abide by the Hague-based tribunal's decision, which is expected soon. China, which maintains it won't be bound by the ruling, has been pushing back by building support from nations mostly in Africa and the Mideast.
The U.S. is not a party to the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, under which the tribunal has been constituted, but says it wants China to play by international rules. Since there is no enforcement mechanism for the ruling, any impact will depend on how the international community reacts.
Here's a look at where dozens of countries stand:
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ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
ASEAN has been trying for years to achieve diplomatic solutions in the South China Sea, making little progress and exposing divisions in the 10-member bloc, which includes the Philippines. Reaching consensus on the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling will be tough.
When President Barack Obama met ASEAN leaders in February they agreed on "full respect for legal and diplomatic processes" in accordance with the U.N. convention, but pro-China members Cambodia and Laos nixed any mention of "arbitration."
Vietnam, which has fought China over competing South China Sea claims, has been most supportive of the Philippines' case and submitted a statement to the tribunal. Hanoi has said it supports "full compliance" to the procedures of the convention.
But other ASEAN nations are generally wary of speaking out for fear of alienating China, the region's economic heavyweight. Malaysia and Brunei have said little about the case, though they too are South China Sea claimants.
Indonesia and Singapore are not claimants but have been a bit more outspoken. Singapore's Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said last week that the ruling could have implications beyond the South China Sea and "we cannot subscribe to the principle that might is right." Indonesia's Foreign Ministry declined to say whether the ruling should be binding on both sides but said international law must be respected.
Even the Philippines' position is unpredictable as a new government takes office there June 30. President-elect Rodrigo Duterte has expressed willingness to restart bilateral negotiations with China.
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RUSSIA
Moscow, which shares China's suspicion of Washington, is Beijing's most prominent supporter on the issue. On a visit to China in April, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia is against any interference from outside parties in the South China Sea — a reference to the U.S. — "or any attempts to internationalize these disputes." Like China, Russia says disputes should be resolved through talks between the parties directly involved.
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CHINA SUPPORTERS IN AFRICA, MIDEAST
China's state news agency Xinhua on May 20 said that more than 40 countries have expressed support for China's stance on the arbitration case. The Foreign Ministry has in recent weeks given prominent mention to support it claims to have from nations principally in Africa, the Mideast and Central Asia.
But few of those foreign governments have issued statements independently. Some, including Cambodia, Laos and Fiji, have disavowed China's description of their position.
Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington said they could confirm official statements from Afghanistan, Gambia, Niger, Sudan and Vanuatu. A Chinese statement with the 21-member Arab League supported China but it was unclear if it represented all the parties' official positions.
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EUROPEAN UNION and G-7
The EU has urged all South China Sea claimants to resolve disputes through peaceful means and "pursue them in accordance with international law," including the U.N. convention. The Group of Seven wealthy nations, which comprises Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.S. and the EU, has called on all states to fully implement decisions binding on them in courts and tribunals provided under the convention.
In June, French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian proposed that European navies coordinate patrols in Asian waters to reinforce a rules-based maritime order. He warned that if the laws of the sea are not respected in that region, they could also be challenged in the Arctic Ocean or Mediterranean Sea.
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AUSTRALIA
In January, Foreign Minister Julie Bishop said the China-Philippines ruling will be "extremely important" as a statement of international principle and will "settle once and for all" whether artificial reefs are entitled to territorial waters. But Australia has been less outspoken in support of arbitration than the U.S., perhaps mindful of Australia's own resistance to arbitration to resolve its disputed maritime border with tiny East Timor.
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INDIA
India has not issued a categorical position on arbitration case, but has been broadly supportive of the application of international law. India shares U.S. concerns about Beijing's rising ambitions in the seas of Asia.
India's External Affairs Ministry says that "all countries must abide by international law and norms on maritime issues." India set an example in 2014 when it accepted a decision by the Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration that ruled in favor of Bangladesh in a dispute over the countries' maritime boundary.
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JAPAN
Japan was an early supporter of the Philippines' pursuit of arbitration and says both China and the Philippines should abide by the outcome. Japan sees that as upholding international law, but it also reflects concern that historic rival China seeks strategic control of vital sea lanes in the South China Sea that carry 80 percent of Japan's crude oil imports.
Japan's support of third-party dispute resolution is not universal. While it has sought to take its dispute with South Korea over the South Korean-held Dokdo or Takeshima islands to the International Court of Justice, it says no such action is needed in its dispute with China over the Senkaku or Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan.
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SOUTH KOREA
Like Japan, South Korea is heavily dependent on fuel imports that pass through the South China Sea, but it has closer ties with China and has been less inclined to speak out. The Foreign Ministry says South China Sea disputes should be resolved under internationally established regulations and that it is "looking with interest" at the Philippine-China arbitration case.
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TAIWAN
Taiwan has complained that the tribunal has not solicited its views. While Taipei officially exercises the same nine-dash line claim as Beijing in the South China Sea, it is primarily concerned about Taiping island in the Spratlys. Taiwan administers that remote land feature and is concerned it could be designated as a rock without the rights granted to islands.
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Associated Press writers Jim Gomez in Manila, Philippines, Ashok Sharma in New Delhi, Niniek Karmini in Jakarta, Indonesia, Christopher Bodeen in Beijing, Kim Tong-hyung in Seoul, South Korea, and Ken Moritsugu in Tokyo contributed to this report.
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